Read into it what you will; however, it seems likely that there will be problems. Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg has raised the possibility of the Czech Republic boycotting the games. There will likely be a large security build-up for the games, very close to a trouble spot. As well as Russophiles, there are Abkhazians who remain at best wary and at worst hostile to Russia. Sochi, on the Black Sea, is in a strategically important position, near the Crimea, that Russia eyes. Certainly, it’s one to watch.

xD.

Given the difference in spending and the facility with which the Chinese Communist Party ignores minor details like its citizens, it seems inevitable that the opening ceremonies at Beijing 2008 will be rather grander than London 2012. We may well be able to point out some of the issues with the recent ceremonies – making sure that children are sufficiently attractive, using CGI ‘just in case’ and dressing people up in costumes and passing them off as representing different ethnic groups. Hopefully, we’ll do better on those fronts.

Nevertheless, it probably won’t have the same spectacle. That doesn’t mean the spectacle won’t be wonderful; in any case, the sports are the thing. We should remember that the admittedly impressive achievements of BOCOG had a heavy price on the poor unfortunates who just happened to live in the wrong place.

xD.

All, however, is not rosy. China faces a few problems; these are my impressions.

Tibet and Xinjiang both have groups that seek more autonomy or even independence. They are in the interior of the Asian continent and a long way from the rich cities of the coast. With disparate geography, I do wonder how Beijing will keep control of those provinces. I don’t think it’s a question of ‘if’, at least in the medium term, but what China must do to maintain its control and the resulting unforeseen consequences.

There is a growing middle class, it would seem, in China as the economy has taken off. Something in the back of my mind tells me, from my course on democracy and democratisation at LSE, that middle classes are good for democracy. However, China’s growth will not go on forever; the sheer size of its population means that there will be a crunch as people either can’t achieve the bourgeois lifestyle they want or find themselves slipping downwards. The PRC will also, I feel, reap the rewards of its one child policy; a demographically top-heavy population with lots of retirees to support from a relatively small number of workers.

The internet, mobile phones and other communications technologies mean both that it is harder for the Chinese Communist Party to keep tabs on everybody and that it is easier for people to organise themselves anonymously and/or spontaneously; viz., the ‘Anonymous‘ protests against Scientology and flash-mobbing. In and of themselves, they’re not hugely important (yet) but they do show a means to an end. This doesn’t mean anything unless there is something to protest about; in China, though, there is plenty. The corruption and incompetence of local officials, AIDS and environmental degradation seem to be issues that the CCP recognises it has to do something about and which protesting does not necessarily imply a rejection of the CCP.

Indeed, the Olympics may have been given to China at an inopportune time. Certainly, if the reactions I’ve seen on the television news are anything to go by (and I don’t put it past the CCP to have made sure that only people who towed the party line happened to be near any cameras), Tibet is precisely the wrong thing for the West to use as a leitmotif for its opposition to the rule of the CCP. It comes across as an attack on the Chinese nation when it is strong; the Olympics, through Billig’s process of banal nationalism, strengthen it. Looking to engage economically – making the comparison with Russia’s kleptocratic rule – might work rather better.

A final thought; there are lots of Chinese people overseas. As China grows and people look at returning home to make the most of the burgeoning economy, they may, as during Africa’s ‘Wind of Change’, take distinctly Western ideas with them; perhaps economic at first, but requiring good governance at all levels and, as a corollary, participation of the people in a more meaningful way.

I only mention all this because Mikhail Gorbachev’s recent comments in the media over the Russian-Georgian conflict reminded me that an awful lot of Kremlinologists were surprised to find that the USSR had suddenly gone. There are huge differences between the USSR and China, but the unexpected is not the impossible.

xD.

xD.

The BBC website reports that it has had a record number of posts complaining about it and even suggest this might be a giant con, as you can submit your own design to the London 2012 website. Unfortunately, Auntie Beeb didn’t read the article properly, as you have to fit your pictures into an abstract template they give you. I might have a go, though.

We now have, as Iain Dale puts it, what looks like the advert for the Annual Rabbit Shagging Championships. It fell at the first hurdle – I didn’t realise that the pink shapes said ’2012′. Indeed, I didn’t realise they were meant to say anything. Moreover, it says of London ‘we love shite PR’. Quite why the rebrand was thought necessary, I don’t know. If this is an attempt to move on from the troubles of rising costs that have troubled London 2012 of late, I’d say the money could have been better spent. In fairness, the agency behind it have come up with a genius way of making new business – the design will, according to LOCOG, evolve up to 2012. Sorry to whoever designed it, but I don’t like it.

In fairness, there will have to be additions to whatever design is used to allow for the pictograms that are used for each sport. Wikipedia has good examples of the pictograms for Beijing 2008. The Thames ribbon could easily be adapted for pictograms for London 2012.

I actually think the old river logo had some identity to it – people seemed to recognise it, particularly as it was the background for the fantastic moment in Trafalgar Square when the host city was announced. With a bit of luck, they’ll go back to the former logo post haste. With a bit more luck, I’ll do some designing and see if I can do better.

One good thing about the new set of logos – they were for the Olympics and Paralympics, emphasising that the games are for all. It doesn’t change the fact that they look rubbish. The old logo emphasised the fact that it was in London, a city inextricably connected to the Thames. The new one doesn’t emphasise unity or anti-discrimination so much as tastelessness.

I feel a Freedom of Information request coming on…

xD.