In terms of logistics, I would make three suggestions. Given the layout, it’s important that each table isn’t talking amongst itself thereby making so much noise that you can’t hear the speaker. Secondly, there are two breakout rooms. I would like to see the two used for an hour each for anyone to stand up a present an idea for five minutes. Thirdly, I’d like to see it recorded and ideally live streamed. Certainly, the plenary sessions could be on uStream or BlogTV.

—fold—

I start with some of the themes Sunny suggests, and add in some more. This is by no means exhaustive; just some things that interest me.

London

Firstly, I don’t think anyone who can’t beat Ken for the Labour nomination will be able to beat Boris. However, I’m not convinced that Boris will run again; it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion and it seems the main reason he would stay on is that there is no obvious heir apparent from the Conservative ranks, certainly not with with any significant profile. If the competition is between Ken and Oona, I would favour the former on the basis that he stands a better chance of building a broad coalition that goes beyond the Labour party. We will need to develop a narrative on the Conservative administration of City Hall, and I would suggest that it should focus on a lack of big ideas and not making the case for London in Whitehall and Westminster. Boris has also had a few bizarre flights of fancy – Boris Island Airport and the Boris Bus (especially its cost) – while scrapping ideas like Cross-River Tram that would have been beneficial to London.

When it comes to the Mayoralty, I have no idea who the LibDem candidate will be (although Susan Kramer is available). The choice of LibDem candidate may well indicate how London LibDems feel about the ménage à deux and whether they feel the Orange Book tendency has moved their party in a way with which they feel uncomfortable. We will have to determine whether attacking the LibDems for their coalition with the Tories is sensible, responsible and effective, and that may well depend on who the candidate is.

I am plotting an idea to set up a London political podcast. I will do a separate post on that as and when I have settled my ideas, but some of the ideas that have come out on that are important. We will need to look to the growth in Labour councillors and councils to be the starting point of a fightback against the Tories in the capital.

Wales and Scotland

We must avoid making this project too London-centric. Yes, it is being hosted in the capital and London has many millions, but we should look at the other devolved areas in Britain: Wales and Scotland. All three could learn from each other, but they may be particularly useful in working out a tack to take with regard to the LibDems. We also have to work out how we strengthen the progressive position at Holyrood and the Senedd, given that the former has extensive powers and it seems likely that the latter will be gaining similar powers. Alternate centres of power in Wales, Scotland and London may well be able to slow at least some of the damage I fear the current administration will bring.

The West Lothian Question

I think that progressives need to seriously consider the idea of English regions.

There is a lot of talk about devolution, giving power to the people and so on. We need to work out what that actually means. If we regionalised, we would see alternate centres of power. To give them meaning, they need powers substantial powers and we should consider the inclusion of policing, transport, housing, spatial planning and, potentially, health. I feel that counties are too small and too easily controlled by the centre to be able to effectively devise and implement policy.

Regions would mean the main parties would have to have some sort of meaningful regional structure. Much as I hope the regions would be able to stand up to Whitehall, I hope that meaningful regional structures within political parties would weaken the wearisome control from the centre to which so many people object.

I would hope that this would lead to the economic weight of the country shifting away from London and away from financial services and giving parts of England outside of London the opportunity to be something more than vassals.

We have spoken much about the sad state of local media. I merely raise the question as to whether regions would cause a re-alignment of newspapers, radio and television so that there could be meaningful coverage and scrutiny of politics and competition between outlets.

I reject the idea of and English Parliament as an answer to the West Lothian question out of hand (a Parliament for forty-eight million people isn’t much less unitary than one for sixty-one million).

We should emphasise that this would not create an extra layer of bureaucracy. There are already Government Offices for all the English regions along with Regional Development Agencies and Local Authorities Leaders’ Boards. This is about democratising those structures.

Ultimately, I think we have seen a flourishing of the London, Welsh and Scottish blogospheres that is indicative of better relations between citizen and state in those three areas and I want the same for the rest of England. This will mean addressing some of the mistakes and lack of ambition from the failed north-east referendum.

The LibDems

We should pursue a strategy of splitting the Social Democrats from the Liberals/Orange Book in the Lib Dems with a view to one side joining the Tories and the other Labour. We should make it clear that you cannot go into coalition with the Tories and call yourself progressive.

I think we should advocate that the cuts are being implemented too soon; that if they are going to do a zero-budget process, it has to be zero-budget across everything¹; that these cuts are also the political desire of the Orange Book and Tories; ensure efficiency where they are made; oppose the most egregiously unfair cuts; maintain support for industry.

That having been said, we need to work out how we can use social democratically-minded LibDems to control the excesses of the coalition.

Others

• Low pay. We must continue to support the living wage, consider the benefits of a citizen’s wage and ensure that the minimum wage is increased appropriately.
• Europe. As people will know, I am pretty pro-European. However, we should explicitly say that there should be no further integration for a couple of Parliaments to give the Lisbon changes and expansion time to bed down. We could expand to the relatively small countries of the Balkans when the time is right, but we will need to be in an economically strong position to welcome Turkey to the EU when the time is right. It should be made clear that member state of the EU have the right to nationalise, municipalise and deprivatise and that the principles of the free market should not prevent this (although I would retain the state aid prohibitions as they are).
• Co-ops. It strikes me that this is a movement to which we should reach out; surprisingly large, but often very local and potentially powerful for community organising.
• The BNP. We need to consider what’s going to happen next with the BNP and their fellow-travellers. I welcome their thorough trouncing at the recent election and I look forward to Richard Barnbrook being invited to pursue interests of his own choosing by the good people of Barking and Dagenham. However, I have three concerns. One is that we will become complacent about the BNP et al. and that they will be able to regroup. We must keep the pressure on them. A second is that the BNP’s problems may lead to more support for the EDL; while they are clearly not going to get anywhere electorally, they are violent. Thirdly, we need to explicitly oppose and combat the rising populist nationalism that we see in UKIP, sections of the Conservative party, sections of the media and, frankly, amongst people who should know better.
• Women’s rights. We must defend the right to abortion. I feel the likelihood of an attempt at restricting it in this Parliament is high and I feel there is a good chance it could be successful. I feel that we should also be looking at Norwegian-style rules for gender-balance in the boardroom. We should discuss the sex industry and the objectification of women.
• Iraq and Afghanistan. I don’t want to belabour these subjects. For the moment, I want to set aside whether they were a good idea or not, and just look at the conduct of the campaigns. It is clear that there were mistakes and shortcomings. We should look at what they were, how they happened and how we stop them happening again. In order to do it properly, we must be able to do it without always going back to the morality of the conflicts. I’m not saying we shouldn’t consider the morality of the conflicts; I’m saying it’s not the only issue.

I’ll probably do something on electoral reform in the coming days.

xD.

1 – Including the NHS and Trident. I am prepared to at least consider that (for instance) industrial promotion is currently more important than (for instance) fertility treatment. I am not saying that is the case, but that we should be prepared to consider it.

Not habemus papam, but habemus praesidentem consilium europeum¹.

As you may be aware, I am not the head of government of any member of the European Union, and so I do not have a vote for President of the European Council. If I had a vote, I would seriously consider casting my ballot for Vaira Vike-Freiberga.

Partially, this is because I would like the President to be a woman – there are too many people at the top levels of European politics who have their genitalia on the outside – but mostly because she understands one of big the problems that the EU (and, I would say, quite a lot of EU democracies) has – the feeling of closedness and distance from the citizen. Having an election without the candidates being declared, behind closed doors and with only a few people being able to vote is rather too close to a papal conclave for my liking. If nothing else, a proper election would give us opportunity to have a semi-decent debate about Europe and look at what policies and ideas are on offer.

It’s worth looking at this letter in the FT, published on the 15th, on the subject of gender balance at the top of the EU from Margot Wallström, Diana Wallis, and my favourite EU Commissioner, ‘Steely’ Neelie Kroes.

xD.

1 – I don’t think Latin actually has a word for president other than praestes which has a religious connotation, so this is the accusative present active participle of praesideo, I preside. Corrections gratefully accepted.

I’ve been thinking about the next election. There seems to be a decent chance that there will be a hung parliament. It is, of course, possible that one party will be so close to an overall majority that they will form an alliance with one of the small parties to take them over fifty per cent.

It seems rather more likely that either the Conservatives or Labour will require the support of the Liberal Democrats to form a government. This puts the LibDems in a bit of a quandary. I’m quite sure that if the LibDems form a coalition with the Conservatives, I will, at the following election, be telling people that voting LibDem is the same as voting Conservative, and I bet my opposite number will be doing the same..

There are advantages to forming a coalition – ministries, influence and profile. You would be able to exercise the nuclear option of withdrawing from government and forcing an election at any time and stop some of the more egregious policies from coming to fruition. I would say that those advantages could well, like fairy gold, disappear in the morning light.

As you know, there are some people in your party who find the idea of backing the Tories anathema (we used to call them the SDP, and with the Trots well and truly purged from Labour, it’s not that far to move back) and some who find the idea of backing Labour anathema (we used to call them the Liberals). Splits and defections are not impossible; remember that you’ll be backing the ruling party for perhaps four years and will be part-responsible for all their actions for that time. Of course, there might be a snap election to get rid of the coalition partner, and then you’d be in a very unfortunate position.

You’d also have to toe the party line. Not an easy thing; the Tories are increasingly anti-European and there are a number of rising stars who do not, frankly, seem very liberal.

I think this would be bad. I think we need a couple more parties represented in Parliament, not one less, and we certainly need a small-l liberal party to counteract the authoritarian tendencies of both Conservatives and Labour.

So what to do?

Well, you can still hold the balance of power without having to risk attaching yourself too closely to one party. Offer whichever party has most votes (as opposed to seats) confidence and supply. Tell them you’ll vote through the budget and against any motion of no-confidence. On everything else, vote as you would like to; support the good, amend the ugly and stop the bad. You can still force an election if you want if things become too bad, you’re not tied into supporting policies which are a long way away from what you want and you’re making sure that your party stays together.

Moreover, you can honestly say that you’re making sure the country is governed by providing confidence and supply but that you are still holding the government to account. You retain your integrity.

Best wishes,

Dave.

The idea is very simple. On every ballot paper, at the bottom, is a candidate called RON. If RON wins, nominations are re-opened and the election is held again. Simple.

“A-ha”, I hear you cry, “but what about local councils?”

Local council wards each elect three councillors. If RON comes in the top three, anyone who would have been elected but comes below RON isn’t elected; anyone who beats RON is elected.

So, if the ward was Hogwarts and three were to be elected, only Alastor Moody would be elected and there would be a new election for the remaining two places:

Alastor Moody (elected)
RON (‘elected’)
Sirius Black (not elected)
Arabella Figg (not elected)
Albus Dumbledore (not elected)

Similarly, mutatis mutandis for Euro elections and the GLA.

Now, the advantages. People can express discontent with all the available options and, in instances where there’s only one candidate, means that they’re not elected by default. It’s slightly different to ‘none of the above’ in that it’s more constructive; someone isn’t necessarily elected just because no-one less crap ran.

xD.

Printed and promoted by Anne Agent on behalf of Can D’Date, both of 29 Acacia Avenue, Dandytown.

I believe that’s a requirement under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendum Act 2000 (PPERA). I know various candidates who, during election time, carry a similar imprint on their blog. I have two questions; is there a similar requirement for tweets and, if so, what would it look like

Mark Park of Lib Dem Voice has a partial answer.

PPERA 143 (6) says

The Secretary of State may, after consulting the Commission, by regulations make provision for and in connection with the imposition of requirements as to the inclusion in material falling within subsection (1)(b) of the following details, namely—

(a) the name and address of the promoter of the material; and

(b) the name and address of any person on behalf of whom the material is being published (and who is not the promoter).

A simple solution would be to allow political parties to set up a website (with a short url!). It could then, in a similar way to sites like bit.ly. You could have li.uk/aaa for an imprint from a Labour candidate, who happened to be assigned ‘aaa’. Whaddya think, Mark?

xD.

The nine withdrawals in favour of Karzai, all relatively recent, suggest people know which side their bread is buttered, either because they suspect Karzai will win or because there has been some horse-trading. Polling is difficult in Afghanistan, but the three I have seen give the lead to Karzai. However, the number of undecideds is high. Assuming Karzai does not receive a majority, the second round will be him against either Abdullah Abdullah or Ashraf Ghani. Abdullah is more likely to beat Karzai; if anyone is to beat him, the west would probably prefer Ghani. Karzai remains the man to beat.

Elections for the thirty-four provincial councils will also take place tomorrow.

More at afghanelections.org.

xD.

PS – I draw your attention to the disclaimer on the sidebar.

The totals are 9 for the Party of European Socialists, 12 for the European People’s Party, 1 for the Nordic Green Left, 2 for the new European Conservatives and Reformists and three for the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe.

I’ve gone by the party of the head of government. A couple of HoGs are independents, but are listed by the party to which they were affiliated (Bulgaria) or which supported them (Hungary).

xD.

It has been obvious for some time that Franken was going to have the election given to him; delaying by Coleman was to keep the GOP’s ability to filibuster alive. Now that they have sixty seats, the Democrats (assuming Obama can keep the Caucus, which includes a GOP defector and two independents, together) can force a vote by invoking cloture. In plain English, the Republicans can no longer keep talking to stop a bill being passed. With the executive and legislative firmly in the hands of the Democrats and the judiciary marginal, the USA approaches what in the UK is called the elective dictatorship.

I have written about this previously: (One step closer to sixty, Towards sixty senate seats and The magic number sixty.

xD.

Update: over on the marvellous Twitter, Tim ‘Bloggerheads‘ Ireland says that

Republicans across America are shitting themselves and sticking pins in their golliwogs tonight. Next: GAY SOCIALISM!

.

Mr Ireland is quite wrong. From the point of view of Rush Limbaugh, it’s already happened: White House celebrates LGBT Pride Month.

The headlines are, with my comments underneath:

Half of people aged 18-34 (48% of people aged 18-24 years old and 49% of those aged 25-34) said they would be more likely to vote for a party committed to an increase in spending on education

In other news, the Pope has released a statement saying that he is indeed a Catholic and a bear has been seen coming out of the woods saying ‘do you mind?’¹. People understand the value of education.

Nearly three-quarters of adults (73%) agreed that giving young people affordable access to local education and training would reduce crime and anti-social behavior

Gordon Brown’s announcement on education, training and work for young people – a carrot of availability for everyone and a stick of reducing benefits for not taking offers – picks up on that in two ways. It addresses the immediate concern but also assuages fears about young ‘uns hanging around with nothing to do.

Four-fifths 82% of adults in the Norwich North constituency agreed that every local person who met entry standards should be entitled to a free place at a local college or university

Fees were never popular.

One quarter (24%) percent of respondents said they trusted the Conservatives to invest most in education. One in five (20%) chose Labour, 10% opted for the Liberal Democrats, 4% for Green and 2% chose Ukip.

Which is worrying, to be honest. Education should be one of our strong suits.

If there was an election tomorrow 34% of people would vote for the Conservatives, 30% for Labour, 15% for the Liberal Democrats, 14% for the Green Party, and 7% for others.

A 4% lead can easily be overturned. The majority at the 2005 election was about 11%; that does mean we’ve lost a lot of support, but given the expenses scandal took down the previous incumbent, Ian Gibson, it is perhaps not all that bad for Labour.

xD.

1 – Shamelessly nicked from Mitch Benn of The Now Show.